Essays that examine token-launch pricing, uncertainty and the competition for attention in crypto markets.
Why read Cobie?
Cobie's token-launch essay helps you ask better questions about a valuation headline. He separates the price paid in private funding rounds from the price attached to the small portion of supply that trades publicly. The useful reading task is to follow who holds tokens, what they paid and when they can sell, rather than treating one quoted valuation as the whole market.
His essays on probabilistic thinking and the attention economy add two tools for reading market narratives: consider several possible outcomes and examine what attracts attention to an asset. These are useful companions to a launch analysis or a viral token story. His current Paradigm biography also connects that writing to operating experience: he leads Coinbase's Base app and previously founded Echo.
Start with the original
Selected work
Market essay ·
New launches, part 1: private capture, phantom pricing
What can a launch valuation hide? The essay distinguishes private-market ownership from tradable supply, giving you concrete questions about entry prices, locked tokens and the quoted market price.
Essay ·
Probabilistic thinking
How can you discuss uncertainty without reducing a view to one prediction? His worked scenarios show how considering several outcomes changes the way you reason about a market thesis.
Essay ·
Tokens in the attention economy
Why does attention matter when assets compete for the same audience? This essay connects finite human attention, social signals and the growing range of tokens and NFTs.
Projects & roles
Base app
His current Paradigm biography identifies him as the lead of Coinbase's Base app.
Echo
The same biography records his prior role as founder and Coinbase's acquisition of the funding platform.
Cobie's essays
His publication on crypto, markets and money.